How To Calculate A Shopify Competetor Selling

Estimate your competitor’s monthly revenue, orders, and conversion rate with industry benchmarks

Complete Guide: How to Calculate a Shopify Competitor’s Sales (2024 Methods)

Understanding your competitors’ sales performance is crucial for benchmarking your own Shopify store’s success. While you can’t access their exact sales data, you can make educated estimates using publicly available information and industry benchmarks. This comprehensive guide will walk you through the most accurate methods to calculate a Shopify competitor’s sales in 2024.

Why Estimating Competitor Sales Matters

• Benchmarking: Compare your performance against industry standards
• Market positioning: Identify gaps in your competitor’s strategy
• Pricing strategy: Determine if your products are competitively priced
• Marketing insights: Understand which traffic sources drive their sales
• Inventory planning: Estimate demand for similar products in your niche

7 Proven Methods to Estimate Shopify Competitor Sales

1. Traffic-Based Estimation (Most Common Method)

This method uses the competitor’s estimated traffic and industry conversion rates to calculate potential sales.

Formula:

Monthly Sales = (Monthly Traffic × Conversion Rate) × Average Order Value

Where to get the data:

• Traffic: Use tools like SimilarWeb, SEMrush, or Ahrefs (free versions provide estimates)
• Conversion Rate: Industry averages range from 1.4% to 3.6% for Shopify stores
• Average Order Value (AOV): Estimate by analyzing competitor’s product prices

Example Calculation:

If a competitor gets 50,000 monthly visitors with a 2.5% conversion rate and $85 AOV:

(50,000 × 0.025) × $85 = $106,250 monthly revenue

2. Product Review Analysis

Many Shopify stores display review counts, which can help estimate sales volume.

Method:

1. Count the number of reviews on best-selling products
2. Estimate review rate (typically 1-5% of buyers leave reviews)
3. Calculate: (Number of Reviews ÷ Review Rate) × Product Price

Example: A product with 250 reviews at $49.99 with a 3% review rate:

(250 ÷ 0.03) × $49.99 ≈ $416,583 in sales for that product

3. Social Media Engagement Analysis

Social media metrics can provide insights into a competitor’s sales volume.

Key metrics to track:

• Instagram/Facebook followers and engagement rates
• YouTube subscribers and video views
• TikTok views and shares
• Pinterest pins and saves

Estimation method:

1. Calculate engagement rate (likes/comments per follower)

2. Compare to industry benchmarks (e.g., 1-5% for fashion brands)

3. Estimate traffic from social media (typically 10-30% of followers visit monthly)

4. Apply conversion rates to estimate sales

4. Email List Size Estimation

Many Shopify stores display email popup metrics or offer discounts for signups.

Estimation techniques:

• Check if they display subscriber counts (e.g., “Join 50,000+ subscribers”)
• Use tools like Hunter.io to estimate domain email volume
• Analyze their email capture strategies (popup frequency, incentives)

Sales estimation:

Email marketing typically drives 15-30% of ecommerce revenue. If you can estimate their list size, you can calculate potential email-driven sales.

5. Paid Advertising Analysis

Competitors’ ad spend can reveal their sales volume.

Tools to use:

• Facebook Ad Library (shows active ads and duration)
• Google Ads Transparency Center
• SEMrush or SpyFu for PPC analysis

Estimation method:

1. Estimate monthly ad spend (tools show spend ranges)

2. Calculate ROAS (Return on Ad Spend) – typically 2:1 to 4:1 for profitable stores

3. Multiply ad spend by ROAS to estimate revenue from ads

6. Inventory Turnover Analysis

Tracking product stock levels over time can indicate sales volume.

Method:

1. Note inventory levels for best-selling products
2. Check back weekly to see restocking patterns
3. Calculate: (Inventory depletion × Product price) ÷ Time period

7. Third-Party Marketplace Sales

Many Shopify stores also sell on Amazon, eBay, or Etsy.

Tools to use:

• Jungle Scout (for Amazon sales estimates)
• Terapeak (for eBay sales data)
• EtsyHunt (for Etsy store analysis)

Estimation method:

1. Find competitor’s marketplace listings

2. Use tools to estimate their marketplace sales

3. Add 20-50% to account for their Shopify store sales

Industry Benchmarks for Shopify Stores (2024 Data)

Industry	Avg. Conversion Rate	Avg. Order Value	Avg. Return Rate	Avg. Traffic Sources
Fashion & Apparel	2.8%	$78	25%	40% Social, 30% Organic, 20% Paid, 10% Email
Electronics	1.9%	$125	15%	35% Organic, 30% Paid, 20% Direct, 15% Email
Home & Garden	2.3%	$95	20%	30% Organic, 25% Paid, 20% Social, 15% Email, 10% Direct
Beauty & Cosmetics	3.1%	$62	18%	45% Social, 25% Organic, 15% Paid, 10% Email, 5% Direct
Food & Beverage	2.5%	$58	12%	35% Organic, 25% Social, 20% Paid, 15% Email, 5% Direct

Advanced Techniques for Accurate Estimates

1. Triangulation Method

Combine multiple estimation techniques for more accurate results:

1. Use traffic-based estimation as your baseline
2. Adjust based on product review analysis
3. Factor in social media engagement data
4. Consider paid advertising spend estimates
5. Apply industry-specific benchmarks

2. Seasonal Adjustment

Account for seasonal fluctuations in ecommerce:

• Q4 (Oct-Dec): Typically 30-50% higher sales than average
• Q1 (Jan-Mar): Often 20-30% lower due to post-holiday drop
• Q2 (Apr-Jun): Steady growth leading into summer
• Q3 (Jul-Sep): Back-to-school and pre-holiday preparation

3. Competitor Growth Rate Analysis

Track changes over time to understand growth trends:

1. Record traffic estimates monthly using Wayback Machine or similar tools
2. Note product catalog expansion (new products added)
3. Track social media follower growth
4. Monitor pricing changes and promotions

Common Mistakes to Avoid

• Overestimating conversion rates: Most stores convert at 1-3%, not 10%
• Ignoring returns: Forgetting to account for 15-30% return rates
• Assuming all traffic converts equally: Organic traffic often converts better than social
• Not adjusting for seasonality: Holiday periods can skew estimates
• Relying on single data points: Always cross-reference multiple sources

Tools to Automate Competitor Analysis

Tool	Best For	Pricing	Key Features
SimilarWeb	Traffic estimation	$199+/month	Traffic sources, engagement metrics, competitor comparison
SEMrush	SEO & PPC analysis	$119.95+/month	Keyword rankings, backlink analysis, ad spend estimation
Ahrefs	Backlink & content analysis	$99+/month	Organic traffic estimation, content gap analysis
Jungle Scout	Amazon sales estimation	$49+/month	Product research, sales analytics, competitor tracking
Shopify Compass	Shopify-specific benchmarks	Free	Industry reports, performance benchmarks, educational resources

Legal Considerations When Analyzing Competitors

While competitor analysis is legal and encouraged, there are ethical boundaries:

• Do:
  • Use publicly available information
  • Analyze data from third-party tools
  • Study their public marketing materials
  • Purchase products to analyze customer experience
• Don’t:
  • Hack or scrape their website aggressively
  • Impersonate customers to get internal data
  • Violate their terms of service
  • Use bots that may overload their servers

For more information on legal competitive intelligence practices, refer to the Federal Trade Commission’s guidelines on fair competition.

Case Study: Estimating Sales for a Fashion Competitor

Let’s walk through a real-world example of estimating sales for a mid-sized fashion brand on Shopify.

Competitor: “TrendyThreads.com” (hypothetical example)

Data Collected:

• Monthly traffic: 85,000 (SimilarWeb estimate)
• Average product price: $68
• Product catalog: 180 items
• Instagram followers: 47,000 with 3.2% engagement rate
• Best-selling product has 320 reviews
• Estimated ad spend: $12,000/month (Facebook Ad Library)

Calculation Process:

1. Traffic-based estimate:
   • 85,000 visitors × 2.8% conversion = 2,380 orders
   • 2,380 × $68 AOV = $161,840 monthly revenue
2. Review-based verification:
   • 320 reviews ÷ 3% review rate = ~10,667 units sold
   • 10,667 × $68 = $725,356 for that product alone
   • Suggests our initial estimate may be low
3. Social media adjustment:
   • 47,000 Instagram followers × 15% monthly visitors = 7,050 visits
   • Assuming 4% conversion: 282 orders × $68 = $19,176 from Instagram
4. Ad spend consideration:
   • $12,000 ad spend × 3.5 ROAS = $42,000 in ad-driven revenue
5. Final adjusted estimate:
   • Base estimate: $161,840
   • Add social media: +$19,176
   • Add ad-driven sales: +$42,000
   • Adjust for review data insight: ×1.5 multiplier
   • Final estimate: ~$335,000 monthly revenue

Authoritative Resources on Ecommerce Benchmarks

• U.S. Census Bureau – Monthly Retail Trade Report (Official government data on ecommerce trends)
• Statista – Ecommerce Market Data (Comprehensive industry statistics and forecasts)
• Harvard Business Review – Competitive Strategy (Academic research on competitive analysis methodologies)

Actionable Takeaways for Your Shopify Store

1. Benchmark regularly: Track competitor metrics quarterly to spot trends
2. Focus on conversion optimization: Even small improvements (0.5%) can mean thousands in additional revenue
3. Diversify traffic sources: Don’t rely solely on one channel (e.g., Facebook ads)
4. Improve your AOV: Implement upsell/cross-sell strategies to match or exceed competitors
5. Reduce return rates: Better product descriptions and images can lower returns below industry averages
6. Leverage competitor weaknesses: If they have poor mobile experience or slow shipping, make these your strengths
7. Test pricing strategies: If competitors have higher prices with strong sales, you may have room to increase margins

Final Thoughts

Estimating a Shopify competitor’s sales is both an art and a science. While you’ll never have perfect data, combining multiple estimation methods with industry benchmarks can give you remarkably accurate insights. The key is to:

1. Use multiple data sources to cross-verify your estimates
2. Adjust for industry-specific factors and seasonality
3. Focus on trends and changes over time rather than absolute numbers
4. Use these insights to inform your own strategy, not just copy competitors
5. Remember that execution matters more than any single metric

By regularly analyzing your competitors’ performance and comparing it to your own metrics, you’ll be able to make data-driven decisions that can significantly improve your Shopify store’s profitability and market position.